Even as India struggles to contain the rapidly spreading novel coronavirus disease COVID-19, another natural threat looms over the east coast of the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the depression over the Bay of Bengal concentrated into a Cyclonic Storm during on Saturday evening and further intensified rapidly into a Severe Cyclonic Storm on Sunday morning and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on Sunday evening.
The Weather Channel reports that the system, currently lying more than 1000 km away from the Indian coast, is very likely to intensify into Extremely Severe Storm by Monday night. The cyclone has been named Amphan (pronounced as UM-PUN), as per the naming guidelines set by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
Projected track
After a wide range of discrepancies in the projected track over the past few days, most models now agree on a more or less similar path for the storm. As per the current forecast, the system will continue on its track of north-northwestwards till Sunday and then recurve north-northeastwards from Monday to Wednesday. As on Sunday morning, the storm lies 1,080 km away from Digha in West Bengal.
The IMD forecasts that the Cyclone Amphan is very likely to cross West Bengal–Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during afternoon or evening hours of Wednesday, May 20, as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Potential impacts
The forecasts from IMD suggest that squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to commence along and off Odisha coast from Monday evening, and extend to West Bengal coast from Tuesday afternoon. The wind speeds are likely to go up to around 145 kmph over central BoB by Monday and up to 180 kmph over north BoB by Wednesday.
The IMD has warned the fishers not to venture into the Odisha-West Bengal-Bangladesh coast from Monday onwards, and those who are out at sea are advised to return immediately.
Last year, Cyclone Fani had hit Odisha in May, killing more than 70 people in Odisha and West Bengal. Fani was also an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 215 kmph.